Business Ireland: 2009

"It is demonstrable that things cannot be otherwise than as they are; for as all things have been created for some end, they must necessarily be created for the best end. Observe, for instance, the nose is formed for spectacles, therefore we wear spectacles" in Candide, ou l'Optimisme.

Wednesday, August 26, 2009

Interesting Papers

The Financial/Economic Dichotomy in Social Behavioral Dynamics: The Socionomic Perspective”
Prechter and Parker’s 2007 Journal of Behavioral Finance paper

The Economist on "the other worldly philosophers" and "What went wrong with Economics"

http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=14030288

http://www.economist.com/displayStory.cfm?story_id=14031376

The Economist with Greg Davies on behavioural finance

http://audiovideo.economist.com/?fr_story=e71885c25fada37622b1dd9e9f7600208e4ccc25

Tuesday, August 18, 2009

The greats

Adam Smith- The Wealth of Nations- http://www.gutenberg.org/files/3300/3300-h/3300-h.htm

J.M Keynes- The Consequences of Peace- http://www.gutenberg.org/files/15776/15776-8.txt

Karl Marx- The Communist Manifesto- http://www.gutenberg.org/files/61/61.txt

Malthus- Principles of Population- http://www.gutenberg.org/files/4239/4239-h/4239-h.htm- The Nature and Progress of Wealth- http://www.gutenberg.org/files/4336/4336-h/4336-h.htm

The Works of Thorstein Veblen

http://www.gutenberg.org/files/833/833-h/833-h.htm --The Theory of The Leisure Class

http://www.gutenberg.org/files/20694/20694-h/20694-h.htm -- An Enquiry into the Nature of Peace

And why Spurs keep playing Pavluchenko....

Sunk Costs in the NBA:
Why Draft Order
Affects Playing Time
and Survival in
Professional Basketball
Barry M. Staw
Ha Hoang
University of California,
Berkeley (Sept 1995)

Interesting- 'good money after bad' theory-- Tegar(1980) Brokner and Rubin (1985)

Monday, May 25, 2009

Saving for a rainy day?

A lovely post taken from the Undercover Economist http://blogs.ft.com/undercover/

Not very long ago, Americans were terrible savers. In 2007, the average person put aside 60 cents of every $100, or .6% per paycheck. However, the current economic downturn has shocked us into depositing more at the bank. As of February, the personal savings rate was more than 4%. That’s a big improvement, but it’s still half of 1980s levels, when Americans routinely socked away 10% of their paychecks. Why is saving so hard? And how can we be smarter savers?
Behavioral economists—researchers who mix psychology and economics—have uncovered three reasons why people find it so difficult to save. The first is temptation: Although we often later regret it, we just can’t resist spending. The second is lack of understanding: Our brains can’t quite grasp the profitability of saving. The third is optimism: We believe that everything will work out, even if we don’t save…

Monday, May 18, 2009

American long term growth

Interesting article from the Economist, concerning the future impact of the financial crisis on america.

http://www.economist.com/finance/economicsfocus/displaystory.cfm?story_id=13648998

Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Standards are poor?

In recent weeks the Irish government has become very much preoccupied in reversing the decision by the major credit rating agencies Moody’s, Standard & Poor’s and Fitch’s Ratings to downgrade Ireland’s credit rating from the prestigious AAA. According to official sources the triple A rating is bestowed upon securities considered the lowest risk to investors, and, unfortunately given the current state of the public finances and banking crisis , Ireland is no longer considered a “low risk” destination for capital. Here’s the question though, why should the Irish government be so preoccupied with the opinion of those that have gotten things so wrong lately?

The criticism of the rate agencies needs to begin by examining the role they played over the past decade. During the 1990s the rating agencies had two ongoing problems. Firstly, how could they encourage more investment in financial products? Secondly how could they solve the continuing problem that mortgage banks faced in having to wait decades to recoup finance granted to new home owners? By marrying these two issues a single solution began to emerge to the two separate problems.

The rate agencies found that investors were always keen to invest in low risk securities. Therefore by bundling hundreds of mortgages into a single security and granting it a AAA rating the rating agencies solved problem one. Investors did not need to know what properties were in the bundle only that the rating agencies had granted it a AAA rating – and the capital flooded in! Mortgage banks were delighted as they could sell their loans into these securitized bundles and get a much quicker return on their original investment thanks to global investors who couldn’t get enough of these “safe bets” – hey presto, problem two sorted!

A new problem has emerged however as a conflict of interest has arisen. The rate agencies have become the gatekeepers and effectively took over the role of the banking sector in monitoring investments instead of fulfilling their original role as impartial observers. This is probably why these same agencies believed sub-prime mortgages were of low risk on the shortly before the credit crunch and why Ireland was deemed to be in “good shape” on the eve of the global financial crisis. The oligopolistic nature of this three firm dominated market calls very much into question the practices of these firms. One needs to question now maybe it should be Ireland rating these agencies and not the other way around!

The natural order of things

An interesting article applying the logic of Darwin's biological framework to the dismal science and beyond..

http://www.spectator.co.uk/the-magazine/features/3213246/the-natural-order-of-things.thtml

Monday, April 27, 2009

All you need, when you need it

Whether it be 'Mac the knifes' cutting budgets, low end corporate tax rates, industrial incentives attracting FDI, demographics and gateway attributes, E.U funding or our plain old educated workforce the explanations for the Celtic Tiger remain as puzzling and endless as the bundle of reasons that depict our current economic performance. Is it a case of better to have loved and lost than never have loved at all or should we spare the morals and seek a firmer footing on which to re-launch our economy.

Analysing Celtic Tiger literature, the 'convenience factor' emanates frequently. Just as we should oppose the tendency to feel sorry for poor little Ireland amidst our recession, inducing memories of the 1980's and beyond, Policymakers must refocus efforts on establishing not the same factors that produced the boom, but the underlying attractions and varying conditions that facilitated investment. Spare the Celtic tiger idioms and glam of success and concentrate on making Ireland convenient again.

Demographics and education remain relatively similar and our corporation tax seems currently low enough to be a safe haven for British investors. Not being the cheap option of Europe in terms of manufacturing and market access appears a changing condition since the E.U's enlargement and is a more serious aspect of FDI attraction that requires addressing. Convenience factors however, predominately our environmentally friendly, low carbon based economy, and emphasise on high performance work systems could offer a future platform to 'marketing convenience'.

Short term objectives of cleansing bank balance sheets allowing the creation of a toxic bank, an option that many European countries are sceptical of, may go some way to stabilising and promoting a healthy banking system, thus attracting investment and providing scope for competitive edge. This pursuit however must be dealt with swiftly and accompanied with necessary recapitalisation.

Will the boom be back? Only if we lay the seeds and market ourselves appropriately. The world may soon be open for business again, lets make sure we're competitive, find our niche and hope for our sake when things pick up investors won't want to shop at Lidl. Sounds simple but could be all to convenient...

Whats yours is mine, and whats mine is my own...

"Coming together is the beginning. Keeping together is progress. Working together is success" Henry Ford's words could be an appropriate mission statement for the E.M.U given the grandeur and scale of European monetary expansion and integration achieved in a relatively short period of time. Yet given the worrying news of the latest IMF global stability report the communal achievements of the past maybe washed away by the old reliables of individual member state differences.

The re-emergence of such nationalist monetary tendencies is natural, cemented by the fact European banks carry the majority of the 'bad assets' burden ($1,400bn) compared to the U.S. Why would Germany, whose economy will approximately shrink by 6% this year, seek to aid fellow member states? Short term interests while completely rational may however serve to undermine the decades of E.U achievement. Synchronizing policies even to a minimal degree should remain an important part of any member’s recovery plan for both philosophical and financial reasons; allowing member states keep faith in the benefits of cooperation and facilitating continual strength of the euro for the medium to long term.

Minister Lenihan's 'sort out your our own house' approach which appeared domestically important in our emergency budget amounts to a survival strategy that we would be naive to think wouldn't happen in other member states if the crisis escalates. Strong guidance by the E.U is essential in forming common strategies and ensuring national barriers do not re-emerge.

IMF global financial stability report:
http://www.imf.org/External/Pubs/FT/GFSR/2009/01/pdf/text.pdf

Saturday, April 18, 2009

The Morals of a Hangover

A good article by Paul Krugman that disputes the Austrian theory of business cycle fluctuations, claiming that the practice of tough love only offers an easy way to moralise after years off excess, affording us a clear conscience.

http://www.slate.com/id/9593

Friday, April 17, 2009

A return to Oz

Bookshop orders for Frank Baum's 1900 classic, The Wizard of Oz, have surged in recent months as present authors seek inspiration to convey our financial plight. Being published at the end of a turbulent century for the U.S economy, the later half being characterised by waves of banking crises, Baum's characters and plot may be due for a Dail Eirinn broadcast.

With the Yellow brick road representing the gold standard, Dorothy's (original) silver slippers portraying the sixteen to one silver ratio, Baum's tale could feature as essential reading on any Economics course. Allowing for oversimplification, the metaphors on close inspection continue, the weak scarecrow representing the debt burdened farmers, the Tin man portraying the industrial workman who 'lost heart' from years of hard yet low paid labour, and Wall street bankers allowing themselves to the allegory of the supposedly brave, but in truth cowardly lion. While the emerald city expressed Washington preoccupation with green paper money, the Munchins played the simple role of ordinary folk. Sound familiar...

The Wicked Witch of the west aptly sports the role of the banks in the whole affair, but our politicians may learn most from the Baum's wizard; the fraud who claims illusory powers. I'm sure nobody would have problems devising a cast for a modern rewrite.

Tuesday, April 14, 2009

When all you have is a hammer....

Inadequate regulation, erroneous fiscal policy and old truths of irrationality may be important in telling the story of our current financial crisis to future generations but how long will the chapter on global mismatches be?

The present disparities between a global financial system which is maintained by national governments requires realignment. As global demand contracts, definitive trading slumps occur and with protectionist policies re-emerging it appears that finance may be becoming less global faster than governance globalises itself. Policymakers exchanging similar views concerning the need for greater regulation remains a starting point toward resolving the crisis in the most economically efficient way thus starving off a retreat from globalisation but one things for sure the relationship that existed, over the past ten years, between international finance and sovereign authority in untenable.

With G20 leaders devising overarching stimulus packages to kick-start the world economy, ailing national economies may need more detailed attention. A view reaffirmed by Angela Merkel who pointed toward the great diversity that exists within E.U economies in terms of industrial and agricultural production. Yes to improved regulation and appropriate stimulus but unfortunately, one size doesn't fit all.

Euro having a laugh?

In an interview with Today FM’s Matt Cooper on Thursday evening ,the Daily Telegraph’s International Business editor Ambrose Evans-Pritchard spoke in detail about the current woes facing the Irish economy. Central to his analysis were two noteworthy points. Firstly, according to Mr. Evans-Pritchard, Ireland is the only, yes only, economy in the world adopting contractionary fiscal policy measures. Secondly, Ireland is in dire need of two policy measures; a devaluation of its currency and quantitative easing, neither of which can be adopted given our participation in the EMU. One must pose the question therefore, are we not better off out of the Euro than in it?

This issue is being debated throughout Europe. In early 2005, cracks in the Euro were beginning to emerge as rural areas in the north of Italy began to only except Lira in exchange for goods and services. Not too much to worry about. However, in recent times the problems have become larger and more frequent. In a recent blogpost, Mr. Evans-Pritchard claims that the Germans are giving up on the Euro. Ex-Bundesbank Chief Karl Otto Pohl has recently stated that both Ireland and Greece are in danger of defaulting on their sovereign debts and may be forced out of the Euro. Even worse, former German Foreign Minister Mr Fischer now thinks the monetary union is beyond saving!

So, should we stay or should we go? For now, its a definate stay! An exit from the EMU would force interest rates to soar, our credit rating would likely fall further and speculative attacks on the currency could ensue. A cocktail for further disaster, hardly the thing we need right now!

Wednesday, April 8, 2009

Budget Anyone?

As Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan prepared to get to his feet yesterday afternoon tension in the lower house of the Oireachtas was at fever pitch as opposition TD’s protested at the fairness of the media being afforded the luxury of seeing the budget statement before they themselves. The question of fairness was raised and this issue of fairness will no doubt dog this, the Minister’s second budget, for some time to come. One thing is for sure Minister Lenihan’s budget can probably be best described using a version of President Obama’s now famous catchphrase – Can he tax it? Yes he can!

As predicted the budget was tough, described as “the budget from hell” by Labour TD Joan Burton as the government sought the plug the gaping hole in the public finances with both increases in taxation and decreases in expenditure. Two problems emerge here. Firstly, international evidence suggests that it is not wise to attempt to tax ones way out of a recession. Secondly, most of the expenditure cuts came on the capital side with less attention focused on current expenditure.

The Government claims that the tax increases are progressive – with those earning the most, contributing the most. However, nobody was spared. Lower, middle and higher income earners were all accordingly hit with increases in the income level. The ceiling for PRSI was increased, unemployed people under twenty saw their social welfare reduced to just €100 a week. Parents have seen childcare supplement halved next year and will see it disappear in 2011. As predicted very little tax was placed on the “usual suspects” – alcohol, cigarettes and petrol, with only smokers hit by a €0.25 increase in the price of cigarettes. Both capital gains tax and capital acquisition tax increased. Overall the government raised an addition €1.8 billion but is this enough to save our ailing economy.

The answer remains to be seen. The Ministers opened his speech with a 6 point plan for recovery; stabilising the public finances, restoring the banking system, regaining competitiveness, protecting jobs, stimulating consumer confidence and reinstating our international reputation. Some of the measures introduced such as the new asset management agency to take bad loans off the banks' balance sheets could help and will allow banks, which are an essential element of any economy, to recover faster. The establishment of the Enterprise Stabilisation Fund, worth €100m over the next two years, is aimed at providing direct financial support to eligible internationally trading enterprises and hopes to stimulate Irish exports – one of the sources of our now forgotten booming economy. The government mentioned the introduction of new retraining and education programmes and ironically the reduction of under 20s social welfare could be positive in the long run as there is a direct incentive to a greater return to education.

However, the outlook is still looking rather bleak. The severity of the tax increases introduction today has confirmed one thing for me today – we blew the boom. The medicine that we have all collectively taken has been bitter, the fear is that it may be so severe as to kill the patient. Let’s hope not.

Tuesday, April 7, 2009

Pokerface

While Lady Gaga's number one claims that it's all about "luck and intuition" famed Berkley economist George Akerlof has drawn a quaint inferance between the growing deception in financial markets and the rise of individualistic card games that encourage 'the bluff'.

Far from scientific, the tenous connection is novel. Akerlof's idea states that following the great depression contact bridge and other team card games created better social awareness, improved trust between parties and ensured greater levels of reciprocity. The rise of Texas Hold'em however has seen ones individual incentive to bluff and be deceptive for his own gain, rise. Avoiding ethical dilemma's of whether or not its right to cheat Akerlof believes that it would be naive to think that such changing trends in card games could not occur in the world of finance and economics?

Lets hope the cabinet is playing plenty of contact bridge because it doesn't look like Brian Cowan has an ace up his sleeve.

Wednesday, April 1, 2009

So You Say You Want A Revolution?

This past Monday, the Student’s Union of UCC put in a place a boycott of the UCC Campus. The reason? It was supposed to be a stand against the reintroduction of fees into third level here in Ireland. Quite what it was hoped this boycott would achieve is something I cannot fathom.

The recent upsurge in the supposed politicisation of the student classes of Ireland has come as a bit of a shock to me. There has until recently, been little or no indication that the average Irish student was a particularly political animal. But all of a sudden it seems, we are meant to be manning the barricades, joining the picket lines and storming the Ivory Towers of the College Administrators. Wonderful. Except for one thing: we haven’t been.

I was about the UCC Campus on Monday afternoon. And it was hardly the hotbed of political activism one was expecting. The all-student e-mail sent informing us to join in the boycott, asked that we respect the picket-lines. I saw no picket-lines this Monday. It occurs to me that the average Irish student would need little or no excuse to abstain from entering their campus on a typical Monday. Of course, the problem with this particular Monday was that it was no typical Monday. It was in fact the first Monday of our “month-off”/”study-month”. Hardly the day to start a revolution.

The college library seemed to be reasonably busy, and there was many a person wandering about the grounds of campus, quite blissfully unaware of the political foment they were supposedly disrupting, and the picket-line they had crossed. Maybe they didn’t get the e-mail?
Whatever one’s feelings about the re-introduction of fees (I for one, am not entirely opposed to the idea: it may improve the dedication of this nations students. If they were paying upward of €50 a lecture – they certainly wouldn’t miss as many!), one cannot deny that if the students of Ireland were really serious about their new found political activism and radicalism then something a bit more incendiary may have occurred in the past few months. But this has failed to materialise.

I, for one, have been decidedly unimpressed by the protests and marches engaged in by the student body of this country. In spite of the fact that strikes seem to be part of the zeitgeist of society once again, the students of Ireland (and their erstwhile governing body, the USI) have hardly been invoking the spirit of previous student movements. Maybe a look at how the students of Paris took things into their hands in May of 1968 (a spirit being invoked throughout the universities of France again at this moment in time), or the students of the University of Berkeley took a stand against what they felt were the unjust policies of the United States Government. If that is too far into the past for your liking, we the students might take a look at what has happened in the Waterford Crystal over the past two months.

A militant belief in worker’s rights has, after a long unflinching stand-off yielded, if not victory, then at least a compromised victory. The factory has retained some 178 jobs, from a possible loss of a full 600. Hardly a moment in the Great March Forward you’ll agree, but proof of what can be achieved when you take true industrial action.

If the UCC Student’s Union had asked us to boycott the college during the height of term, for a day or more then perhaps the message would have been louder and more effective.

But, as things stand it would seem unlikely that the current movement of students in Ireland will one day mentioned in the same breath as any of the other movements mentioned above.

Tuesday, March 31, 2009

A stern test for Trap

The roves of green hats, scarves and headband (all for two euro I'm sure) will surely take a prominent place outside the San Nicola stadium in Bari tomorrow night, priming the Irish fans for yet another assault on a global footballing giant, if only our ailing Taoiseach could inspire and build such confidence within our battered economy and use the green woollies as a eureka moment for the future of the Irish economy.

No, not the manufacture of knitted garments (though if things keep getting worse we may be back there) but calculated, strategic investment in green technology. Our geographical location, wide agricultural base and focus on scientific education act as secondary advantages to why Ireland investment in green technologies is paramount. Solid primary advantages exist now with the cost of capital investment and commodity prices remaining low, augmenting the greatest reason for investment; it will cost us less now than in the future! This argument is vehemently recommended in the Stern Report which establishes that future costs of ensuring sustainability will be significantly higher in the future.

Stern assertions behind of the economics of climate change are simple. If the science is right investment now can save countries (Britain yet equally applicable to Ireland) from spiralling future costs, and even if the science is inaccurate greater levels of sustainability can be achieved, placing countries to the foremost of global sustainability which will inevitably increase in reputation and offer a beacon to market our country from. A win-win situation if you ask me, shame there can't be the same outcome in Bari tomorrow night.

Full Stern Review: http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/stern_review_report.htm

Monday, March 30, 2009

Graduate Jokes or Joke Graduates?

"How do you get an Arts students off your front door step? Pay him for your pizza". This is the sort of joke I became accustomed to during my time as a student as many of my peers (non-Arts students) took a playful swipe at their counterparts studying the social sciences. Jokes like this did the rounds and were usually batted away by our Arts friends like water of a ducks back. However with the re-introduction of fees seemingly just around the corner it made me stop and think is there some validity in these seemingly harmless gags.

For example entry into the Bachelor of Arts Degree at Univeristy College Cork in 2008 was a meagre 340 points. Now the maths behind this are quite staggering! It means a student need only get two C3 grades and 4 D1 grades (all at higher level) to gain entry into the programme. Hardly a example of acadmic excellence! In fact according to the Central Applications Office a score of 340 ranks somewhere between 45% to 70% in terms of student achievement with it more like being closer to the 45% mark given the CAOs cuts-off. This means that roughly 50% of Leaving Cert graduates are beter than the participants on the Arts course.

Arts has notoriously poor attendance rates and given the evidence above no wonder. Most participants have not demonstrated a willingness to advance themselves academically and coast along at the expense of the State for three or more years. A return to fees is probably not the answer to this problem but limiting places is. A reduction in the number of places will drive the points for the course up doing two things; firstly the quality of student will improve dramatically and secondly only those that have a genuine interest in the social sciences will obtain places.

There are plenty of excellent Arts students out there the problem is they are being smoothered by the uninterested masses. No to fees, yes to a reduction in college places!

Saturday, March 28, 2009

Recessional Rhetoric

There was once a time, in very recent history that when the word billion was mentioned it related to a Jurassic period or an atomic clock measuring the earths age, now however the realms of finance and economics have some how stolen a lead over the field of natural history often placing the terms 'billion' and 'stimulus' in the same breath.

A real yet intangible loss from an Irish perspective which has emerged from a decaying Celtic Tiger is a clear skills deficit. Media attention is growing, from car salesman inability to sell following 10 years of choosing his customers and parents cash rich-time poor lifestyles that fuelled a 'take away' culture thereby diminishing cookery skills, to a complete generation's inability to budget after budding in an era of cheap credit and two foreign holidays a year.

While previously unfamiliar words like recapitalisation and billion have become pedestrian and their effects may eventually stabilise a faltering banking system, this recession's societal implications deserve greater attention. Horatio, CSI Miama's character school of philosophy should remain telling to those who afforded themselves generous Celtic Tiger lifesyles, 'knowledge is knowing a tomato is a fruit but wisdom is knowing a it doesn't go in a fruit salad'. Funny yet ironically applicable given the growing number of stay at home parents.

Irish leaders need to realise that emerging from this recession may be more than a financial problem, but can we re-establish Horatio's insight back into Irish people? Shakespeare’s Horatio was a trusted friend to Hamlet, but just like Prince Hamlet Ireland is struggling to make a decision.

Wednesday, March 25, 2009

Animal Spirits

How fickle the mob is! 15 guys in green win a game of rugby on Saturday evening. 5 hours later an eight and a half stone Dubliner knocks out a Panamanian boxer. Queue the media with statements that surmounted to as much as thank god for our sporting heroes who have managed to lift the gloom of the recession that has enveloped us since late last year. Talk about animal spirits!

What happened on Saturday evening/night were wonderful national occasions but should not be used in an attempt to stimulate our stalled economy by suggests we need to be more like our sporting icons. The problems with Ireland are very simple. We are paying ourselves too much and taxing ourselves too little. In January and February this year the government collect €5.7 billion in revenue. The same government spent €8 billion. You don't have to be an economist to figure out where this will lead you.

The problems with this economy can be easily sorted if the appropriate issues are tackled. Given the poor performance of tax increasing in the 1980s to fund our budgetary requirements, a cut in public expenditure is probably the best way to sort of this huge deficit in our public finances. A herd mentality has exacerbated the downward spiral that we find ourselves in. What we need now are cool heads - just like Ronan O Gara on Saturday.

Monday, March 23, 2009

The Road Less Travelled

With excessive media hype surrounding economic ‘recovery roads’ and ardent stimulus panacea, quick fix answers need to be replaced with a reality of hard choices and sufferance. Public veracity of past decisions coupled with delusions of continuous economic growth require realignment with emphasise placed on our global economies constant ebb and flow.

Whilst not doubting the extent, unprecedented qualities and inexplicable face of our current global recession I believe it is worth noting that such dysfunctional tendencies must be placed upon a continuum, with resounding Celtic tiger buzz words such as hundred percent mortgages resembling an equal yet opposite form of dysfunctional economics.

Economic flux and variability deserve a greater degree of ‘natural’ focus, departing from the pessimistic rhetoric and accentuating the prevalence of the business cycle. The Austrian school of business cycle theory, rarely considered by mainstream economists, could offer a refreshing analysis of our current plight. While empirical research has dismissed the idea, Hayek’s concept of the inevitability of a recession following excessive credit expansion and maturing bubbles could be worth further investigation in our current climes. Offering not only an explanation to the current crisis but an insight into devising future policy so as to avoid Ireland’s possible boom bust cycle forwarded by Krugman.

Celtic tiger overinvestment and the necessity of natural economic restoration remain vital. Whilst seeing ourselves through a necessary economic storm reform on a national and European level appear sacrosanct; stricter banking regulation and green agendas remain prominent sectors that require improvement, placing Ireland in a foremost, agile position when global recovery begins. Given the two hundred years since his birth and the natural need for readjustment it would be apt that Charles Darwin’s wisdom could offer a ‘road to recovery; “in the long history of humankind those who learned to collaborate and improvise most effectively have prevailed”

Sunday, December 6, 2009

Saturday, November 28, 2009

Friday, October 30, 2009

Tuesday, October 20, 2009

Friday, October 9, 2009

Tuesday, September 22, 2009

Tuesday, September 8, 2009

Monday, September 7, 2009

Monday, August 31, 2009